Incorporating Demographic Stochasticity Into Multi-strain Epidemic Models: Application To Influenza A

We develop mathematical models of the transmission and evolution of multi-strain pathogens which incorporate strain extinction and the stochastic generation of new strains via mutation.


The dynamics resulting from these models are then examined with the applied aim of understanding the mechanisms underpinning the evolution and dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, such as human influenza viruses.


Our approach, while analytically relatively simple, gives results which are qualitatively similar to those obtained from much more complex individually-based simulation models.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface


Journal of the Royal Society Interface is the Society's cross-disciplinary publication promoting research at the interface between the physical and life sciences. It offers rapidity, visibility and high-quality peer review and is ranked fifth in JCR's multidisciplinary category. The journal also incorporates Interface Focus, a peer-reviewed, themed supplement, each issue of which concentrates on a specific cross-disciplinary subject.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface